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The First Anniversary Of Peak Oil Lead Singer "stirring Trilogy"
The first anniversary of the peak oil in sight. July 11, 2008, international oil prices historic set of 147.25 U.S. dollars to Georgia in the wild enthusiasm generated by the price driven, but also for commodities soaring to unprecedented heights. But along comes a full range of commodity market collapse in 2008 of "commodity slump" has become an unforgettable memory for all investors, since people of fear. The huge oil price shock on the real economy, the domestic refined oil prices change several times, several "crude oil hedging case" uproar, "store oil arbitrage" phenomenon, are also contained in the surging price of oil behind story.
Peak of 147 U.S. dollars from this time last year when the madness, to the beginning of this year plunged to 33 dollars in panic, then rebounded to 73 dollars after a year of optimism ... ... Today, the international oil price After twists and turns, hovering around sixty U.S. dollars. This landmark reference point, the industry said that the short term future of oil prices unlikely to replicate last year's trend, according to the current level of supply and demand, likely to shock adjustment. Surge in the fall of the year, there are many lessons for the Chinese enterprises to sum up.
Three twists and turns: the first anniversary of the peak of fall
2008 7 11, for futures investors are a lot of memories, and crude oil prices have skyrocketed to a record 147.27 U.S. dollars a barrel. Bullish crude oil during the first half of 2008, WTI crude oil from the 100 U.S. dollars a barrel mark, the way soared, six months or more than 50%. Before the July 2, representing the world market price of the CRB commodity index up 614 points, rushed to a record high, the dollar index has been hovering in the 70-72 low.
"Back to that high point is difficult, because the price of 147 U.S. dollars, is expected to gather a lot of time in there," Futures Research and Development Manager Eastern Airlines Wang Liang-liang said that in that time, the "oil depletion" "difficult to play the role of alternative energy," "Hurricane," and so many "stories" of the factors pushing prices up. Some investment banks for various purposes is also involved in speculation, fueled feelings were excited, such as Goldman Sachs, it was then thrown out "of crude oil 200 U.S. dollars," the report, "all kinds of expectations and the action intentionally or unintentionally added together, only then pushing prices to so high. "
However, in such a situation, crude oil has gone through an avalanche twinkling of an eye, this is the first stage. Subprime mortgage crisis has triggered a global financial crisis began to spread, to January 15, 2009 of 33.2 U.S. dollars, in just half a year's time, oil prices slid from a peak of nearly 80%. This also led to an unprecedented drop in other commodities were in high diving, the panic of last October to reach its peak. "Superposition with all fear factors, but also after reaching a low point may be difficult to achieve."
"Price is the last straw breaks the camel," China Energy Network HAN Xiao-ping, chief information officer, said the subprime crisis had already lasted a year, and there is the possibility of self-digestion, but in the end really let This loss of regulation digestion or collapse of crude oil. It can be said, crude oil plunged to the sub-prime crisis, a fatal blow. During this time, all enterprises suffer: commodities leading the slump, resulting in basic metals, agricultural prices to drop, prices for physical inventory shrinkage, the tragic loss of business. And with oil prices the "hedging case" is also one by one, Shennan power of the gambling, the airline's "set of security doors," numerous. "We have a lot of business-to-deep understanding of the crude oil market, not only in this wave of spit fall in light of the profits, but also lose a lot." Nanhua Futures, said Yang Guangming, director of energy and chemical industry.
The second phase, oil prices dropped to the bottom, it begins to wide fluctuations in the 35-50 U.S. dollars, for up to 4 months or so. During this period, the international crude oil stocks become the focus of world attention, as inventory quantity approaching days, while the long-term contracts higher premium, causing a lot of money to "store fuel arbitrage," further deepen the pressure on crude oil spot. Other commodities have rebounded in the case, then the oil as if a hard pull of the "broader market share."
Third phase, the oil price 50 U.S. dollars out of the consolidation area and began a unilateral rise to 73 dollars for 2 months. "This wave of rising inflation expectations derived from the reaction of more crude oil to finance property," Wang Liang-liang said that many people began the "expected" blending in. It is worth noting that some investment banks began to sing to the "100 dollar. "
147 back: the need for resumption of economic growth
"147 fried up though, but at least in the near 80 U.S. dollars, there is a demand supported," said Yang Guangming, when the country less than 200 million barrels of spare capacity, it is a little crude oil production secure borders, as long as the slightest change of OPEC members, the supply will soon be tight. Plus the time in 7-8 months, there are factors such as hurricane damage, it can push oil prices higher. But now, spare production capacity in the 400 to 500 million barrels, combined with CFTC may be introduced in the near future restrictions against oil speculation, the current price of oil may be more shocks in about 60 U.S. dollars.
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