Tempus Fugit
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ROI Debates Won't Keep The Cheese From Moving
The decision whether or not to move forward or not in Social Media is already a moot point. There is simply too much bogged down debate over the many possible ways to measure ROI in Social Media Marketing. Measure away, but I have to wonder who has really taken a time out to consider what viable, traditional alternatives remain in marketing, today. Current statistics and projections show that the traditional choices are about as limited as the number of British families still celebrating a Charles Dicken's Victorian Christmas. "God bless us everyone," who can find much in either category.
Newspapers Are Folding
Moody's expects newspaper revenue to decline 5% to 6% by the end of 2010 and in the mid-single-digits in 2011. This may be less severe than the 22% drop in 2009, but it is a cumulative drop, none the less. The future for the print ad does not bode very well.
"Despite any respite in the rate of decline for newspaper advertising, the industry's longer-term secular deterioration is returning to the forefront," said John Puchalla, vice president at Moody's. "Even in a slowly growing economy, the erosion of newspapers' readership share and pricing power continues unabated as readers embrace free and low-cost content on the web and mobile devices."
Since March 2007 the following newspapers have closed their doors: Tucson Citizen, Rocky Mountain News, Baltimore Examiner, Kentucky Post, Cincinnati Post, King County Journal, Union City Register-Tribune, Halifax Daily News, Albuquerque Tribune, South Idaho Press, San Juan Star. Add up all the years all of these city newspapers were in business and you are talking centuries of lost business history.
Magazines Are Closing
And, things are just as tough for the magazine industry. According to a report by Equity Research Associates, by 2020, the annual US demand for paper used in magazine publishing is expected to decline by 47% to approximately 1 million tons. What does that tell you? Obviously, the advertising dollars aren't going to that medium, either. Now, for the actual industry carnage. The numbers are staggering.
According to a 2007 report by Mediafinder, 591 magazines ceased publication in that year, alone. Another 525 folded in 2008. 400 more closed their doors in 2009. 2010 looks just as ominous.
Direct Mail is Going Nowhere
With those two print industries spoken for, Borrell Associates has also predicted that spending on direct mail will decline 38% over the next five years. That's another traditional marketing channel being rapidly eroded.
Those still considering whether to sign on with Social Media Marketing ought to take note of all these steady declines, which – more or less – represent one door closing from a past era and a new one opening in a new one. Welcome to the Age of Social Media.
Social Media Marketing Is In The House
Forrester Research released its five year forecast that estimates interactive marketing spending from 2009 – 2014. Forrester predicts that interactive marketing in the US will near $55 billion and represent 21% of all marketing spend by 2014 and will include search marketing, display advertising, email marketing, social media, and mobile marketing.
According to the Forrester report, "overall advertising in traditional media will continue to decline in favor of less expensive, more effective interactive tools and services."
Our World Has Changed
To me it is very obvious. This is indeed the Age of Social Media and there is no turning back. As newspapers, magazines, direct mail and other traditional advertising channels dry up, the floodgates are opening to more forms of digital expression.
And why is traditional marketing dying? The answer is simple. The audience is changing. They are tired of being talked at by advertisers. Today's audience now wishes to control the conversation and be chatted with politely and in real time. In today's world people want advertisers to ask them what they want. They no longer want to be told what others think they need. Besides, the entire static experience of newspapers and magazines has become rather boring in an age of exciting digital media.
"Do you remember when it was exciting to get your name or better yet, your photo in the newspaper? Kids today couldn't care less about this," according to Social Media Marketing guru Jeff Korhan. "Where's the excitement in that when they have complete access to a multi-media platform through sites that include YouTube, Facebook, and FourSquare?"
The Train Left The Station. Were You On It?
Companies struggling with the measurement issues of Social Media would be much better served trying to study and leverage the new technologies better than their competitors. The more savvy companies need lead the charge to embrace these popular technologies and social networking platforms. Some of these may be fads, but the overall staying power of Social Media is not.
Many businesses are already profiting within Social Media, so we already know it can be done. This is one of those times when we all need to see the handwriting on the wall and not get left in the dust. This is another time and another place. Adapt to it or be trampled by its momentum.
Imagine poor Lawrence Welk. If he tried to do it all over again – the same way – in 2010, he would most definitely be listening to the advice of others telling him "not to quit his day job." Tempus Fugit. Time moves on. And, so must we all.
I'm banking on the bold and exciting twenty-first century companies that measure the distance between success and failure from their windshield rather than from their rear view mirror.
About the Author
Marc LeVine is Director of Social Media for RiaEnjolie, Inc.(www.RiaEnjolie.com), a web design company specializing in professional looking and affordable websites for all types of small businesses.



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